The simple, corrective pattern shown is unlikely to deceive us as we search for signs that the bull market might be faltering. The highest target I’ve projected so far is 5132.20, somewhat lower than the 5176.00 given here last week. That number was derived from a composite chart, but the revised target, which comes from the February contract alone, should give us a more accurate picture. If getting to 5132.20 is going to remain a good bet, the futures should retrace to no lower than p=4500.70. They could fall beneath that number or even to D=4350.80 and still be no worse than even odds to hit 5132. But if we are looking for better odds, 4500.70 must hold. If it doesn’t, and a subsequent rally brings the futures back up to the green line (x=4575.60), that could conceivably set up a ‘mechanical’ short. Moreover, if the current downtrend crushes the ‘hidden’ support at 4350.80, that could spell trouble for the bull market. _______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 1:01 p.m.): A bullish wilding spree Sunday night turned a would-be corrective pattern (see above) into chop suey, ensuring more upside most immediately to at least 4773.90. _______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 10:48 a.m.): Currently trading for around 4730, the futures are now bound for a minimum 4835.50 (daily, A=4032.80 on 11/18). A correction to p=4559.90, however unlikely, would warrant a somewhat rare ‘mechanical’ buy at the red line. D=5132.20 is still the highest target I can project using the daily bars.
GCG26 – Feb Gold (Last:4595.40)
