The Endless Bull Market still has a ways to go, although a key component of it, the E-Mini S&P 500, is coming up on an important Hidden Pivot resistance at 6803.75 that lies just 1.2% above. Trump’s ability to transform an economy fatally swollen with debt into a beautiful vista is vastly overrated, as is the promise of AI, and that’s why we should be on our guard for the onset of a bear market that is long overdue. Most immediately, that means paying close attention to price action at 6740.25, the midpoint between D and p2=6676.56. Trends within patterns as obvious as the one shown often fall short of expectations, and the midpoint between levels is where to expect such failures to occur. We’ll treat this one as we would a conventional midpoint (p) Hidden Pivot, meaning the futures would become a strong bet to achieve ‘D’ if they blow past 6740.25. The D target is shortable but bound to get front-run because of the pattern’s obviousness, so don’t look for a precise turn from within a point or less of where we should want it to occur. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:07 p.m. EDT): Just a slight downward adjustment: I now see the futures achieving a minimum 6801.25. _______ UPDATE (Sep 25, 1:13 p.m. EDT): The futures have come down unusually hard after stalling precisely at the 6758.50 secondary pivot associated with the 6801 target identified above. They triggered a theoretical ‘mechanical’ buy signal at 6661.50 this morning, but a subsequent low flirted with the 6612.75 stop-loss, casting the bullish outlook into doubt. On the other hand, all previous bets that the bull market is at an end have lost, so we are obliged to give the bull the benefit of the doubt for now. We’ll stay close to the exit nonetheless, with one foot on the fire escape. The most bullish thing about today’s selling is that it has largely spared the institutional darlings of the lunatic sector. This suggests tightly scripted rotation (i.e., rigging) of the markets is still what animates them.
ESZ25 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:6659.25)
