SIZ22 – December Silver (Last:20.84)

December Silver appears on track for  push to the 21.93 ‘D’ target of the pattern shown. The odds were somewhat enhanced when last week’s dip from just above the red line (p=20.78) failed to provide a ‘mechanical’ buying opportunity by reaching the green line as required. Don’t pass up a buying opportunity if it should swoon to x this week, but check the chat room for risk avoidance guidance before you leap. The rally target lies within a thicket of supply deposited on the daily chart last spring, and so a decisive push through D would be more impressive than usual. ______ UPDATE (Aug 17, 11:19 p.m.): My mild enthusiasm for Silver appears to have been  unwarranted, perhaps because I overqualified the impulse leg that seemed to be driving the rally. The last piece of it exceeded no ‘external’ peaks, even though the launch stage got past some small ones near the bottom of the move. Anyway, the December contract appear likely to abort the 21.95 rally target, and I’m not about to sugarcoat what could happen after that.  The disappointing picture is shown in this chart.