$ESU22 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:4281.25)

Picking tops has been all the rage lately, and not just in the Rick’s Picks chat room. At the moment, it’s premature to speculate about it, since the futures are all but guaranteed to rise to at least 4312.75 before they hit anything that could conceivably repel the stampede. The impediment is shown in the chart as the ‘D’ target of a minor rally pattern. There have been no pullbacks sufficient to allow us to get long ‘mechanically,’ at least not on the daily chart, and that is usually a sign a D will be achieved.  The 4418.00 target of a much larger pattern drum-rolled here earlier is also very much in play. As much could be surmised from the fact that DaBoyz made no attempt on Friday to prevent a breakout in the final hour. They apparently figured they won’t even need a sneak-attack short squeeze on Sunday evening to do the job. Look for the futures to hit or exceed 4312.75 before Monday’s session is an hour old. The target is worth trying to short, but only if you can keep the entry risk down to no more than 1.50 points per contract. _______ UPDATE (Aug 16, 8:57 a.m.): This tout mysteriously vanished from the home page. I don’t know whether yesterday’s rally to 4304.75 from the by-now-obligatory, manipulated, oversold low at the opening is as high as this hoax is going to get in this bull cycle, but it didn’t come quite close enough to my 4312.75 target to trigger an appealing short.  ______ UPDATE (Aug 16, 5:07 p.m.): Mr Market definitely seems to know that some widely followed chartists have been predicting a top right here, right now. That’s what has been causing the wacky price action, along with the nagging feeling that nothing can hold the dumb little sumbitch down. _______ UPDATE (Aug 17, 10:45 p.m.): The failure of the initial bounce from p=4290.25 to gift us with a juicy ‘mechanical’ short implies the futures will now work their way down to at least to D=4245.25  of this pattern. _______ UPDATE (Aug 18, 9:02): The recalcitrant little p.o.s. triggered three winning mechanical shorts worth a theoretical $9 grand today, but who could have imagined it lacked the gumption to reach D or even p2 on any of the winning down-legs? The 4245.25 target remains valid in theory, but frustrated bears can be forgiven for thinking it might take a month to get there.