I’ve been quietly promoting a 486.17 target as a place to get short, and although I am still recommending that you attempt it with a very tight stop-loss, I am no longer as enthused. It was based on a variant of my favorite pattern, a ‘quickie’ ABC followed by a long, dragged-out C-D leg. In this case, I ignored a visually compelling ABC whose 477 target had already been exceeded to favor a bastardized pattern with a still unfulfilled target. The change has forced me to the big, bullish pattern shown, with a target at 503.69. The pattern looks much too obvious to work precisely, but the gap through p=424.24 still all but guarantees that D will be reached, at least. If it doesn’t stop the rally precisely, it will surely impose a formidable obstacle, and possibly a fatal one. This is important to consider, since a major top in MSFT would mark the start of a bear market for stocks in general. _______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 3:14 p.m. EDT): The stock has made a so-far high today at 487.75, somewhat above my target. See the chat room discussion for explicit instruction on getting short. ______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 9:40 a.m. EDT): The short triggered around 7:10 a.m. this morning when the stock dropped from an off-hours high at 492.00 to 489.26. A drop of an additional 2.74 (equal to the suggested trigger interval) dictated profit-tsking at 486.53. The trade is still ‘live’, with a break-even-or-better stop-loss on the remaining 50% of the position. The downside target is 481.06, where most (although not all) of the position that is left is to be covered. _______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 1:19 p.m. EDT): Check my post in the chat room just now for a tradable update.
MSFT – Microsoft (Last:490.54)
