A subscriber posted the bullish pattern shown (see inset) in the chat room on Friday, and although I wasn’t enthused about it at the time, I now like it more than the alternative I went on to suggest. It shows two possibilities of a bear market developing without a new record high in the S&Ps. The first implies the futures will fall from current levels, even though they’ve triggered a theoretical buy signal at the green line (x=6030.94). The second allows for a rally to the 6250.38 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, just shy of last winter’s multiple peaks near 6280. I’ve been operating under the assumption that the huge move off April’s low was a bear rally, a sucker’s bet destined to sputter out beneath the old high. I still consider this likely, although less so if the September contract should achieve p=6250.38. It won’t make much difference in the way we trade this vehicle, and a tightly stopped short at p will be warranted in any event. A third possibility — a move to new record highs — would only increase my skepticism and make me more bearish.
ESU25 – Sep E-Mini S&Ps (Last:6018.00)
