At the risk of being premature, I’ve used the weekly chart’s breach of a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 56.30 as evidence that crude is likely to be trading lower in the weeks and months ahead. This is like trying to call Arizona’s election an hour after the polls close, but in any case, sellers’ ability to penetrate the support is surely not a sign of robust health. Even now, a rally to x=60.57, the green line, would trigger a mechanical short, stop 64.85. There is no way to estimate how long it will take for this to play out, but in the meantime, we should trade even the rallies with a bearish bias. ______ UPDATE (May 18, 12:43 a.m.): I now see that the short noted above had already triggered at x=60.57 when I posted the tout. I will track the trade nonetheless, using the suggested 64.85 stop-loss. The worst-case target for this gambit is 47.87, a conventional ‘D’ target where A=69.93 (4/3) on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 2:59 p.m.): I’ve been bearish or indifferent toward crude for so long that it has become a habit to predict generally lower prices. That said, a fist-pump through 65.78 would grab my attention, since it would indicate more upside to as high as 76.89. I doubt this will happen, but it’s always better to be prepared if it does.
CLM25 – June Crude (Last:62.71)
