It has always amused me that the business shows feed viewers a steady stream of heavyweights from the Federal Reserve and the biggest banks in the world to provide interest-rate forecasts that generally have proven no better than dartboard guesses. Rick’s Picks, on the other hand, has not only gotten the trends and turning points precisely right, but with forecasts that went sharply against the consensus. And so we were hardly surprised when steeply falling rates last week ticked off yet another downside target at 3.96% that has been featured here since early in 2025. If you know a benighted producer at Bloomberg, please give her a nudge to let her know that rates on the Ten-Year will keep falling, at least until they reach the 3.674% target that has been featured here since way back when.
TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:3.98%)
