This symbol was setting up for a textbook ‘mechanical’ buy at 90.61 when last week began, but the green line where we typically do the trade got crushed, negating the opportunity. A new one subsequently materialized with a rally target at 91.49, along with the possibility of a fresh ‘mechanical’ trigger if TLT drops back to 89.35 (stop 88.62). The crosscurrents have left me mildly bearish, and I would grow moreso if TLT closes for two consecutive days beneath 87.81. That would portend more slippage to as low as 82.83 (daily, A=94.85 on 12-6). _______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 10:42 p.m.): Buyers popped through p today with enough force today to make more upside to D=94.56 an odds-on bet. _______ UPDATE (Apr 7): It is terminally discouraging that TLT collapsed without quite having reached my 94.56 target, but also without having taken on the 12/6/24’s ‘external’ peak at 94.85. I don’t know that TLT can recover from this failure. If TLT were my kid, I’d leave him at the firehouse.
TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:89.23)
