Last week’s rally died in the midst of some challenging peaks near 110 recorded in December. The subsequent selloff has been steep and probably needs to fall farther before TLT can turn around. That implies that p=105.87 is unlikely to hold as support and that the selloff will eventually hit D=104.62. Plan on bottom-fishing just below there, nearer 104.45, since the target coincides with a prior low. As always, a decisive overshoot of a ‘buying’ number would portend more slippage.
TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:106.71)