The chart replicates the one in AAPL, which was intended to emphasize the futility of Friday’s vicious short-squeeze. Something to sneeze at, as the chart implies? For now, yes. But the bull would begin to menace shorts if it takes out the 4035 apex of last week’s distributive cluster of bars. Moreover, a two-day close above the cluster would put the futures on track for a test of the 4180 spike recorded on December 13. At that point, I’d rate the March contract no worse than an even bet to challenge August’s 4361 peak. And so on and so forth. Although I strongly doubt a move exceeding last January’s 4808 high is in the cards, I could see as high as 4477.50 — that’s a voodoo number –to scare the hell out of bears. Officially, we are still short two contracts with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 4054. Continue bidding 3950 to cover one of them, o-c-o with a stop-loss on both at 4022. _______ UPDATE (Jan 23, 8:52 a.m.): Judging from the way Friday’s short squeeze turned p=3973.50 into chop suey, there is almost zero chance that D=4045.25 of this pattern will NOT be reached: https://bit.ly/3R1mlw4 Accordingly, I’ll recommend covering the two short contracts now for a profit of around $6200. ______ UPDATE (Jan 23, 5:40 p.m.): Bears went all nit-witty for the second consecutive day, producing another Whoopee Cushion short-squeeze. Where will it end? See my comments in the chat room at 14:13, 17:29 and 17:31 for tradable possibilities. _______ UPDATE (Jan 26, 6:54 p.m.): The futures are closing on a 4118.00 rally target I flagged in the chat room Tuesday as ‘all but certain” to be reached. Your bias should have been bullish since then, but if you missed the party the target is shortable rABC-style with the usual caveats. If ES surprises by punching past p, you could try again with an ultra-tight stop-loss at 4118.00, a voodoo number. Here’s a chart that shows everything.
ESH23 – March E-Mini S&Ps (Last:4062.50)
