We’re using an ambitious 4211.75 rally target (slightly corrected from an earlier 4214.00) as a lodestar to ensure that we won’t be fooled by the inevitable fright-mask swoons. It is a high-probability price objective for this bear rally, and the pattern from which it is derived can be used to trade the futures aggressively and confidently. The chart in the thumbnail inset shows a more immediate target at 4127.50 that is also all but certain to be reached, given the way buyers smashed through the p resistance on the first attempt. The rally has been too steep to generate any ‘mechanical’ buys at the green line — only a somewhat riskier pullback to the red line on November 17 that would have required nimble ‘camouflage’ to get aboard. _______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 4:46 p.m.): The futures plummeted precisely to the green line, triggering a ‘mechanical’ buy that had been noted by a chat room denizen. The exact-to-the-tick bottom at x=3987.25 was either a coincidence or the result of other traders glomming onto my proprietary ‘mechanical’ set-ups and doing the trades, albeit incorrectly. Entry at the green line could have produced a profit of nearly $4000 so far, but as I implied in a chat room post, I am waiting myself to do the trade 12 points lower at a voodoo number, 3975. I also gave this as my minimum downside objective, although the futures were in a nasty short squeeze at the final bell that has put them 30 points above my buying level. _______ UPDATE Dec 6, 8:06 p.m.): We sidestepped a treacherous ‘buy’ signal to concentrate on this so-so-bearish pattern. It produced a profitable turn at a 3927 ‘voodoo number’ flagged in the chat room (see my post at 13:07), but the bounce was in danger of running out of steam on the close.
ESZ22 – Dec E-Mini S&Ps (Last:3946.75)
