TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:108.06)

I’ve arbitrarily selected the bullish ‘reverse’ pattern shown because today’s rally triggered a buy signal that allows a projection of p=110.94 as minimun upside for the bounce. Other such signals have failed, but this happened when TLT was not looking quite so dismal. The ETF proxy for the long bond has been looking so bad, actually, that giving it the benefit of the doubt for once in a rare change seemed like the decent thing to do. Don’t pass up an opportunity to get long ‘mechanically’ if TLT pulls pack to the green line after hitting our sweet spot between p and p2. _______ UPDATE (Sep 8, 9:55 p.m.): Wow. The imminent failure of the buy trigger noted above is impressive, even if we already knew that every conceivable factor acting on the long bond is bearish right now. No question, investors take the fraudsters at the central bank more seriously than your editor. Wll TLT ever rally? Stay tuned.