I hate to be the bearer of good news, but the futures were actually a ‘mechanical’ buy when Friday’s death spiral splattered on the green line in the closing minutes of the session. You are forgiven if you had no appetite for the trade, since neither you nor anyone else could have expected the weekend to bring a bullish resolution to Putin’s potentially world-ending dilemma. Don’t feel bad about missing this opportunity, however; it rates only a ‘6.8’, since the A-B impulse leg was not exactly a killer wave of insatiable buying. The implication is that the futures will rally to p=4296.63 before taking out the pattern’s ‘C’ low at 4138.75. Bet on it Sunday night if you wish, but I’d prefer to watch before hazarding a guess as to what the rest of the week will bring. Whatever happens, ALL rallies for the foreseeable future should be regarded as juicy short sales. If you want to see how this can be done without incurring too much risk, stay closely tuned to the chat room. _______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 8:21 a.m.): DaBoyz failed miserably at exhausting sellers over the weekend because none showed up. This means that the obligatory stage-managed, distributive, short-squeeze rally on the opening will be very subdued and brief if it happens at all. For that reason I’ll suggest scratching the trade now. Please let me know in the chat room if you took the trade, since it triggered on Friday’s closing bar and was showing a paper gain of more than $7,000 on four contracts at 6:00 a.m. this morning. The futures have traded up to within a tick of the green line when this update was posted, and gave since traded as high as 4224.25. _______UPDATE (Mar 14, 10:06 p.m.): This pattern has worked well so far, so consider it an enticement to attempt bottom-fishing using the 4127.50 downside target. Also, a rally to the green line would set up an appealing ‘mechanical’ short, stop 4254.50. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 10:35 p.m.): Today’s powerful short-covering rally came off a bottom at dawn that missed our lowball bid at 4127.50 by 11 points. The fact that the subsequent ‘mechanical’ short I’d suggested from 4222.75 got blown to smithereens is warning that the squeeze on bears is not finished. _______ UPDATE (Mar 18, 8:37 .m.): Use this pattern, with a 4462.25 target, to trade the futures today. The equivalent target for the June contract is 4449.25.
ESH22 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:4155.50)
