The April contract is closing on a 1916.40 rally target that has been coming since August, albeit not without far more sturm und drang than gold bugs might have preferred. This is a bull market patiently waiting for a change in the very big picture to make its move. Although the nature of the change is impossible to predict, we can surmise that it will be concurrent with a fraught morning on which portfolio managers awaken with the kind of dread they haven’t felt since 2008. In the meantime, we’ll closely monitor price action when ‘D’ is hit, since an easy move past it would imply that bullion may at long last be heating up. ______ UPDATE (Feb 23, 5:30 p.m.); The so-far shallow correction after the futures kissed the 1916.40 target earlier this week suggests they’re fixing to go higher. If so, look for the move to be effortless until around 1950, where ‘discomfort zone’ jeopardy will be at maximum force. It’s a scalp-short for those who know how, but that wouldn’t diminish the likelihood of a subsequent run-up to 1977.60, where the April contract made an important peak early this year. Here’s a fresh chart. _______UPDATE (Feb 24, 9:52 a.m.): Oh my, such a shocking surprise! April Gold ran up to within a split hair of the 1977.60 resistance noted above, then sold off by a whopping $40. We will be in wait-and-see mode for a while, with high-confidence trade set-ups possible only on the lesser charts.
