Like so many other stocks we follow, AAPL appears to be topping, setting up a plunge that is more than a year overdue. Because the shares are valued at $3 trillion, and because owning them has been the no-brainer path to success for virtually every money manager on earth, the inevitable takedown is likely to consume years and feature many spectacular bear rallies. That would not be conducive to the kind of butterfly spreading we usually do to leverage big bear moves. However, we’re certain to find a way nonetheless, presumably by selling juice at the top of run-ups and by buying distant calls at swing lows. For now, sit back and enjoy the spectacle of portfolio giants getting trapped because there is no one to take them out of the mountainous quantities of AAPL they’ve been accumulating and hoarding since 2009. ______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 10:30): Bottom-fish the 164.87 target shown in this chart if you know how to cut the entry risk to $0.15 per share. Using the marquee high at 182.94 would produce a lower target at 162.41, but I just don’t have it in me to bend the rules that much, since we would be using a too obvious ABCD pattern without a valid impulse leg. _______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 7:40): I’ve put the ‘bastard’ target at 162.41 in boldface green, not that I enjoy having my arm bent by reality.
AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:164.54)
