Soft Landing Fantasies

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Those who think the wizards at the Fed have engineered a soft landing for the grotesquely pumped U.S. economy are in for a rude awakening. Strip out the “wealth effect” from mega-cap stocks driven mostly by hot air and short covering, and the economy is already in recessionary muck. Although yacht sales reportedly are still brisk and nearly every American has booked an exotic cruise, retail sales to the broad middle class have slipped so badly that even lowly Dollar Tree is struggling for air. Consumer confidence has begun to fall because wages are again losing ground to inflation. A look ahead is even more dispiriting with AI breathing down everyone’s neck, since it is potentially the biggest job-killer the global economy has ever faced.  While work-saving innovations may have created more jobs than they’ve destroyed, it’s difficult to imagine how that will happen in an era where the machines themselves are capable of rooting out inefficiency more ruthlessly than any human could.

Tesla as Savior

So what would a soft landing imagined by Wall Street look like?  It would probably start with a 10%-15% selloff in stocks– not quite a statistical bear market, just enough to allow investors to do some bargain-hunting ahead of the next big run-up.  Car manufacturers would sink into genuine recession, but it would be cushioned by Tesla’s unique ability to ride out the storm with fabulous high-tech innovations yet to be imagined. Tesla shares have already fallen nearly 60% from their 2021 highs just above $400, so the worst, we’ll be told, may be past. The Street’s spinmeisters would also be fixated on the prospect of lower fuel prices, lower inflation and lower interest rates. The mainstream media, too stupid and lazy to deviate from the popular narrative, would give these fantasies a boost with headlines that see the bright side of, in this case, a slide into the deepest economic morass since 1973-74.

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$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:91.50)

Friday’s shakedown was the most brutal we’ve seen in, well, weeks, but we can infer it was merely corrective, since the high which preceded it exceeded the important ‘external’ peak at 92.76 recorded on April 4. The downtrend has farther to go nonetheless, and if you plan on bottom-fishing, I’d suggest waiting until TLT falls to at least 90.31. Please note, however, that a failure of that “hidden” support to hold would imply more slippage toward the important low at 88.68 that occurred on May 29.


$BRTI – CME Bitcoin Index (Last:69,320)

A two-day close above the trendline would likely signal an end to Bertie’s insufferable tease. It is a consolidation, of course, but enabled by sponsors who evidently are too gutless to lift the lid until significantly higher prices seem like a sure thing. Perhaps they can enlist the help of Roaring Kitty or some other flashy stock tout who has the ear of a malleable Wall Street Journal reporter? In any case, when Bertie finally takes off, which it sure as shootin’ will, you can bet that its infinitely patient handlers are shooting for $80k or higher.


$ESM24 – June E-Mini S&Ps (Last:5355.75)

I still consider a pullback to x=5105 more likely than a move straightaway to D=5542. A subsequent rally to the target would not be a done deal, either, given the mild struggle bulls have had surmounting the midpoint Hidden Pivot’s gravitational pull.  Impale it they did not, and that leaves the pattern’s completion to D at least mildly in doubt.  We can still use p=5397 as a minimum upside objective, since that is the most logical place for this rally to stall.


$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:189.87)

I’ve returned AAPL to the list temporarily because a rally to the 198.03 ‘reverse target’ shown in the chart would set up a juicy shorting opportunity. It could take a couple of weeks for the stock to get there, and you can trade it from the long side until that happens, but it promises to be worth the wait. For now, the company’s aggressive infusion of buyback helium has given AAPL an artificial boost. Considering the $110 billion sum involved, it might seem as though this is the last stock anyone should want to short, even if the company is an innovative has-been in the same dubious pantheon as Disney. Buyback aside, the chart says AAPL is going to repeat Garbo’s ominous cough in the second reel of Camille when it gets to 198.03. Stay tuned to the chat room and/or your email notifications, especially if you’re new to Rick’s Picks or have never in your life experienced a winning option trade.


$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:104.50)

The long-term picture shows the dollar’s three-year-old bull market to be mildly resurgent. Although the most recent rally failed to punch past October 6’s 107.35 peak, the move to p2=106.44 was sufficient to keep the chart constructive. Specifically, DXY would become an appealing ‘mechanical’ buy if it comes down to the green line (x=102.56).  Thereupon, a one-level move back to at least p=104.50 would be more or less assured, even if further upside to p2, or to D=108.38, would probably be no better than an even bet.