Correcting the reverse pattern shown has taken December Silver below the ‘hidden’ midpoint support at 33.63, implying it will likely require a move down to p2=32.91 for the futures to regain their footing; or even to d=32.19. In fact, a snap back rally to x=34.35 would trigger a ‘mechanical’ short, even if my enthusiasm for initiating the trade would not be high. If the retracement does hit d=32.19, though, it would be an excellent opportunity to bottom-fish with a tight stop loss. ______ UPDATE (Nov 2): The futures danced to our beat last week, triggering a ‘mechanical’ short at x=34.35 that would have evinced little pain. Now they are on their way down to d=32.19 of this pattern. You can bottom-fish with a reverse-pattern trigger that uses a= 33.26 from Oct 25. That implies a 72-cent trigger interval, but you can reduce it by perhaps 95% by using a pattern from the 5-minute chart or less. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 8:26 p.m.): You can still try bottom-fishing using the 32.19 ‘d’ target to set up a low-risk trigger, but this chart shows what to expect if ‘d’ fails to hold. Worst case for the intermediate term could be as low as 28.455, but there’s no reason to assume it will be that bad unless sellers start crushing p and D/d supports of different degree.
SIZ24 – December Silver (Last:32.681)
