Rates on the 10-Year Note came within a hair on Friday of lows not seen since October. My suggestion is to enjoy it while it lasts, since the intraday bottom closely coincided with a Hidden Pivot target at 3.952%. The actual low was 3.956%, which was near enough to consider the target fulfilled. Alternatively, if the downtrend continues on Monday, breaching not just the target but October’s 3.976% bottom, be ready for more slippage to 3.917%, a voodoo number worth bottom-fishing with as tight a stop-loss as you’re comfortable with. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7): It looks like the prediction of an important low hit a bullseye, since this vehicle has since trampolined as high as 4.19% after bottoming a split hair from the 3.952 target. Here’s the chart. _____ UPDATE (March 11): And now rates have rebounded to as high as 4.23%. Too bad the talking heads on Bloomberg and MSNBC, the Fed board of governors and the Wall Street Journal editorialists weren’t aware of the potentially major turn-up when my forecast caught its exact low, since it’s not often that they have pristine, empirically honest data to work with.
$$TNX.X – 10-Year Note Rate (Last:4.21%)
Posted on March 1, 2026, 5:21 pm EST
Last Updated March 11, 2026, 8:28 pm EDT